From our Friend, A, Gary Schilling, Bloomberg
At the beginning of the year, fears were widespread that recession was heading toward the U.S. -- and, indeed, the rest of the world. Even the perennially- optimistic Wall Street Journal survey of economists put the odds of recession in the coming 12 months at 21 percent, twice the level anticipated a year earlier and the highest reading since 2012. On balance, I believe the pessimism over the economic outlook and in financial markets was overdone early this year -- but so too is the more recent euphoria.
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